Editor’s Note: Each Friday, WRAL TechWire takes a deep dive into the Triangle’s real estate markets. In recent weeks, we’ve covered how to win in the Triangle real estate market as a buyer and how sellers can prepare a home for sale in order to get top-dollar offers. This week, WRAL TechWire reporter Jason Parker, who is also a licensed North Carolina real estate agent, shares personal experiences of navigating real estate markets as a buyer during the winter holiday season.
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RALEIGH – The median price of homes sold in the Triangle in November 2022 increased, according to preliminary data from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service. But that news comes as across the Triangle, the number of closings dropped in November to the lowest total number of transactions on record since January 2019.
That’s the first month-over-month increase since June, when the median home sale price across the entire Triangle Multiple Listing Service 16-county region was $421,732.
Still, the median sale price in November was $399,000, more than $22,000 below the summertime peak.
“We’re seeing people buying but it’s gone back to the normal processes,” Susan Dahlin Bashford, Broker, Hodge & Kittrell Sotheby’s International Realty in Raleigh told WRAL TechWire. “A crazy spring season, normal summer, slowdown in the fall and over the holidays, which just didn’t happen last year.”
The median priced home in November 2022 was priced 8.2% higher than November 2021, according to the Triangle Multiple Listing Service (TMLS) preliminary data.
After a strong spring, price appreciation slowed during the summer months and continued into the early fall months, especially as mortgage interest rates increased following the Federal Reserve’s decisions to increase the federal funds interest rate multiple times this year.
Yet the Triangle remains a housing market that is more resilient than many others across the country, said Bashford, as the region continues to be “short on supply with high demand.”
“Our lack of inventory is driving it and keeping it at status quo,” said Bashford of the current state of the real estate markets in the Triangle.
What’s happening
Across the Triangle, the number of closings dropped in November to the lowest total number of transactions on record since January of 2019 with only 2,547 homes sold.
Similarly, the number of sold homes in Wake County fell to the lowest mark since January 2019, as well, with 1,161 homes sold, according to TMLS.
In Durham County, only 281 homes were sold in November 2022, a drop of more than 45% year-over-year. That mark of 281 sold homes also is the lowest total since January 2019.
Fewer listings, too
At the same time as the number of transactions is decreasing, the number of new listings is decreasing, as well.
While some slowdown is expected based on seasonal trends observed historically in the region’s real estate markets, inventory of homes for sale this year may be taking an additional hit due to many owners deciding to remain in place rather than list their home for sale and trade or upgrade to a different home.
That’s due to mortgage rates that are much higher than they were a year ago, despite having decreased in recent weeks, now at about 6.5% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to the latest data from Freddie Mac.
All of this is having an effect on the decisions that homeowners are making this fall and could impact what happens in the winter months as well.
In November 2022, there were only 2,614 new listings that came available for sale listed on the Triangle Multiple Listing Service. That’s the fewest new listings on the open market since December 2019.
Further, in Wake County, there were only 1,085 homes that came available for sale. That’s the fewest since December 2015, according to the TMLS data set.
Still, NC metros remain good for sellers
And with limited inventory, fact still is, many regions in North Carolina remain seller’s markets.
“North Carolina ranks as one of the best states in the U.S. for sellers,” said Sean Black, the CEO and a co-founder of Knock, which this week released its latest monthly Buyer-Seller Market Index.
The Triangle market still favors sellers, Black noted, but is trending in the direction of buyers.
One sign of this shift: Though median sale price increased across the entire region, the median sale price of homes sold in Wake County in November fell compared to October, and is now $460,000.
Still, the median priced Wake County home sold in November 2022 was 8.2% more expensive than the median priced home sold in November 2021 in Wake County, according to the TMLS data.
Both Raleigh and Durham markets are showing “relatively slow days on market” and are “relatively expensive” compared to the region writ large, noted Black.
The median sale price of homes sold in Durham County in November 2021 was 6.2% higher than a year ago, and also rose compared to October, outpacing the regional average with a median sale price of $405,000.
Mortgage rates hit highest levels since 2008 – but don’t expect a crash in Triangle home market
Best markets for sellers are in NC, as people are still looking to buy
But there are two North Carolina housing markets where sellers are still very much in command of negotiations, according to Black and the latest analysis from Knock.
That’s Fayetteville, the only one of the 100 metropolitan regions tracked in the analysis that remained a strong sellers market in November, and Winston-Salem, the second-ranked sellers market in the nation.
Both of these smaller housing markets are projected by Knock to continue to favor sellers “considerably” in 2023, noted Black. But Raleigh and Durham may return to a balanced market by fall 2023, the Knock forecast anticipates.
“People are still buying,” said Laura Siegmund, the owner of Luxe Residential, in an interview with WRAL TechWire this week. “I think we will continue to see long-term appreciation, I just don’t think it will be as much, as quickly, as the last two years.”
Instead, said Siegmund, the region is likely to see single-digit year-over-year price appreciation, which is typical of real estate markets.
“We’re going to continue to see demand,” said Siegmund. “It’s not a recession, it doesn’t feel like buyers have disappeared, it just feels like buyers are being more discerning, taking slower steps in the process, while still moving forward.”
Triangle real estate market is slowing but agents warn it may just be seasonal
Consider accelerating a search this weekend
Right now, before the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets next week, those who remain interested in buying a home in the Triangle and will rely on a mortgage loan in order to purchase a property may want to see available homes this weekend.
That’s because right now, mortgage rates are decreasing, said Jon DeHart, branch leader at Movement Mortgage in Durham. “Rates decreased Wednesday and Thursday due to the reduction of inflationary pressures,” said DeHart. And buyers, sellers, and their agents will have more information on Friday morning as the Labor Department releases job and employment data from November, DeHart said.
Historically, the best time to buy a home in North Carolina is in the winter months of December and January. Which means that those who shop for homes now, and negotiate them in the coming weeks, may just find a great deal.
Housing and you: How to navigate the Triangle real estate market this winter
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WRAL TechWire reporter Jason Parker, who is also a licensed North Carolina real estate agent, works with journalists from WRAL.com to track and present market data and report on how people are experiencing the region’s changing real estate markets. These special reports will use the category tag “Triangle Real Estate” or “Triangle Real Estate Market.
