Editor’s note: All calculations in the NCSU Index are done by Dr. Michael Walden.

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RALEIGH –  The trend for the NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators is still down.  The Index has now been falling for a year.  But note – it’s a decline, not a plunge.

Components of the Index are still often moving in opposite directions.  So the word for the day about the economic outlook continues to be “uncertainty.”

Indeed, the drop in the Index has now been occurring since a recent high was set in May 2022.

Mike Walden (NCSU photo)

Good signs

There continues to be strength in many parts of the economy.

In May 2023, building permits increased a robust 3%, manufacturing hours increased, and manufacturing earnings were unchanged.

It was the significant fall in the national index and a jump in initial unemployment claims that pulled the Index into negative territory. These differences continue to reflect the uncertainties in today’s economy.

While some parts of the economy point to retreat, others indicate advances.

If you’re confused, don’t worry – you have good company, like the Federal Reserve, CEOs, and equity investors. All are looking for clarity that will suggest a clear direction for the economy.

Unfortunately, we’re still looking!

The numbers

Chg. from prev. month, Chg. from prev. year

  • INDEX -0.3%, -7.5%
  • ECRI-WLI -0.7%, -12.1%
  • Claims 13.4%, 67.6%
  • Permits 3.1%, -9.7%
  • Hours 0.3%, -3.1%
  • Earnings 0.0%, -1.3%

About the Index

The Index is composed of five components: the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)’s Weekly Leading Index (http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/), North Carolina initial claims for unemployment benefits, North Carolina building permits, average weekly hours of work of all North Carolina employees in manufacturing, and average weekly earnings of all North Carolina employees in manufacturing. All data are seasonally-adjusted and modified for differences in prices levels where appropriate. Data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, and ECRI, whose permission to use their Weekly Leading Index is greatly appreciated. All calculations are done by Dr. Michael Walden, and comments can be sent to michael_walden@ncsu.edu.