Earth Day eve warning: Climate cataclysm threatens the planet, Doomsday author warns

Editor’s note: Earth Day 2023 is Saturday, April 22. But are Earth Day celebrations in the future threatened by climate change? Yes, says Marshall Brain – futurist, inventor, NCSU professor, writer and creator of “How Stuff Works” is a contributor to WRAL TechWire. Brain takes a serious as well as entertaining look at a world of possibilities for Earth and the human race. He’s also author of “The Doomsday Book: The Science Behind Humanity’s Greatest Threats.”

Note to readers: WRAL TechWire would like to hear from you about views expressed by our contributors. Please send email to: info@wraltechwire.com.

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RALEIGH – What if I told you that “climate change” is about to enter a new phase? A phase where it is deadly and disruptive to millions or billions of people at a time? On the eve of Earth Day 2023, let’s take a detailed look.

The problem is that climate change is about to make a dramatic shift. The cataclysmic events that are soon coming will affect large swaths of humanity, and most of the shifts will be irreversible – Once they occur, there will be no way to undo them. Therefore, if humanity was a wise species, we would be doing everything in our power to prevent these cataclysmic events from happening. Here are eight of the most important shifts that will soon be upon us:

Heatwaves that kill millions of people
Blue ocean event in the Arctic
Permafrost melting that causes a doomsday feedback loop
Glacier collapse in Antarctica
Collapse of the Amazon Rainforest
Collapse of the Gulf Stream and AMOC
Overheating oceans
Droughts that destroy cities and crops

Here is the amazing thing – all these catastrophes could arrive at approximately the same time. When that happens, it will be spectacular in the worst sort of way. Let’s take a look at these eight events together in more detail.

#1 Heatwaves that kill millions

Our planet is getting a little warmer year by year because of the carbon dioxide humans are adding to the atmosphere. Scientists would say that the Earth’s average temperature has risen 1.2 degrees C since the start of the industrial revolution. This does not seem like much, and that’s because it is an average taken across the whole planet on an annual basis.

The problem is not the average, but the extremes. The high temperatures in the summer in certain areas might be 10 degrees above normal for a period of days or weeks. It is extremes like these that will become deadly.

Equatorial and tropical areas are the ones most likely to experience these extremes. We have not yet seen an event that kills hundreds of thousands or millions of people in places like India, Bangladesh, South America, Africa, China, or the Middle East, but these events are coming if humanity stays on its current trajectory of emissions. Eventually large parts of the planet become uninhabitable. See this video for details: https://youtu.be/Rx2yS2iIVSk?t=119

#2 Blue Ocean event in the Arctic

In the past, the Arctic region of planet Earth has been an anchor of coldness at the North Pole, both in winter and summer. However, we are rapidly approaching the point where the ocean ice in the Arctic region completely melts in the summer, leading to a Blue Ocean Event. With the ice gone, the temperature of the Arctic region can explode, as described in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqRdu2riNlg

This temperature explosion in the Arctic here in #2 can lead to more heatwaves in other parts of planet as mentioned in #1 and will also cause more permafrost to melt in #3.

#3 Melting Permafrost that causes a doomsday feedback loop

We discussed the permafrost problem for planet Earth last week in this article:

Lose the permafrost, lose the planet: A very chilling Doomsday scenario – https://wraltechwire.com/2023/04/07/lose-the-permafrost-lose-the-planet-a-very-chilling-doomsday-scenario/

In a nutshell, as permafrost melts it releases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, heating up the planet more, which melts more permafrost, in a doomsday feedback loop. Combined with a Blue Ocean Event in the arctic, the problem accelerates. See this video for details: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuiQtLAUi6U

#4 Glacier collapse in Antarctica

Meanwhile we also must worry about the state of Antarctica at the South Pole. If the Thwaites Glacier or the Denman Glacier in Antarctica start to collapse, humanity will witness a dramatic and irreversible rise in sea levels. These articles paint the picture:

Why East Antarctica is a ‘sleeping giant’ of sea level rise – https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230309-climate-change-the-sea-level-rise-locked-in-east-antarctica
East Antarctic glacier melting at 70.8bn tonnes a year due to warm sea water – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/14/east-antarctic-glacier-melting-at-708bn-tonnes-a-year-due-to-warm-sea-water
Greenland temperatures surge up to 50 degrees above normal, setting records – https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/03/07/greenland-record-warmth-ice-sheet/
‘Everyone should be concerned’: Antarctic sea ice reaches lowest levels ever recorded – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/04/everyone-should-be-concerned-antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-lowest-levels-ever-recorded
Antarctic Researchers Report an Extraordinary Marine Heatwave That Could Threaten Antarctica’s Ice Shelves – https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12022023/antarctic-ice-shelves-marine-heatwave/

Antarctica is basically a ticking time bomb right now, and the date when the bomb goes off is currently unknown. Once the bomb starts exploding, in the form of glacier collapse, the Earth’s coasts and coastal cities are doomed.

#5 Collapse of the Amazon Rainforest

Speaking of ticking time bombs, humans are cutting down and burning down the Amazon rainforest at breakneck speed. Soon enough the rainforest will start to collapse. The rainforest will die and convert to grassland or desert. All the carbon locked up in the rainforest will become carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This video can help to understand the problem – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v-Ld-xc6PY

That humanity would tear down and destroy an entire ecosystem like this is unimaginable, but this is what we are doing through inaction.

#6 Collapse of the Gulf Stream and AMOC

Recent articles point to the collapse of the Gulf Stream and the AMOC:

Study warns critical ocean current is nearing ‘collapse.’ That would be a global disaster – https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/04/11/antarctic-ocean-current-could-collapse-century-study-warns/11641712002/
Torrents of Antarctic meltwater are slowing the currents that drive our vital ocean ‘overturning’ – and threaten its collapse – https://theconversation.com/torrents-of-antarctic-meltwater-are-slowing-the-currents-that-drive-our-vital-ocean-overturning-and-threaten-its-collapse-202108

Once this circulatory pattern collapses, there will be global weather changes and side effects, not all of which are predictable. See this video for details: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFzymV6krQQ

#7 Ocean Overheating

This headline alone is chilling, and the article goes into more detail:

The surface of the ocean is now so hot it’s broken every record since satellite measurements began – https://www.livescience.com/ocean-surface-temperature-record

“The current extremes are already affecting ocean life. Marine heat waves, where ocean temperatures in a particular region rise above the levels that native organisms can tolerate are becoming more common.”

In other words, we are seeing ocean temperatures high enough to kill off ocean creatures in various regions. When combined with #6, eventually ocean ecosystems collapse.

#8 – Droughts that destroy cities and crops

Federal government considers major water cuts to protect Colorado River – https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-04-11/federal-government-options-colorado-river-crisis

“This approach would mean across-the-board cuts for all water users in the region, including senior water rights holders, amounting to a reduction of about 13% on top of cuts that were already agreed to under a 2019 deal. Agricultural irrigation districts, cities and tribes would all need to participate based on a schedule of reductions tied to the levels of Lake Mead.”

Item #1 above talks about the deaths of millions of people through overheating. If the heat does not kill them, then thirst and starvation are next.

In many regions, humanity faces a freshwater catastrophe. There are two forces working together to create the problem:

Climate change causes droughts that shrink water supplies and dry up rivers and lakes
Backup supplies in the form of underground aquifers and reservoirs are running out of water as well

Combine these two effects together and we have parts of the planet where freshwater will run out eventually. Thirsty people and thirsty crops will die.

We already can see the leading edge in this year’s rice shortage:

Global rice shortage possible in 2023, prices are expected to remain high, analysts say – https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/food/2023/04/19/rice-shortage-2023-worldwide-outlook/11697581002/

“Falling production in China and Pakistan, as well as in the U.S. and Europe, have meant the supply of rice is shrinking compared to global demand… Bad weather in rice-producing regions around the world led to a drop in rice production in 2022.”

Droughts cut rice production, and soon there will not be enough rice to go around. Eventually people begin to starve.

What is the Worst-Case Scenario?

Any one of these 8 catastrophic events would be bad. Now imagine the worst-case scenario: what if 6 or 8 of them arrive at approximately the same time? What if:

Heatwaves kill or displace millions of people, and…
A blue ocean even in the Arctic causes Arctic temperatures to spike and weather patterns to become extreme across the northern hemisphere, and…
Permafrost melting causes a doomsday feedback loop of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere, raising temperatures even more, and…
Glacier collapse in Antarctica rapidly raises sea levels and destroys the Earth’s coastal regions, and…
The collapse of the Amazon Rainforest releases 100+ gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and destroys an entire ecosystem, and…
The collapse of the Gulf Stream and AMOC disrupts the Earth’s oceans and global weather patterns, and…
Overheating oceans finish the job and destroy thousands of marine species, and…
Droughts destroy cities and crops, leading to the deaths of many millions of people?

What if it all happens approximately at the same time? This is the kind of timeline we are looking at as a species.

All of these things together likely means the collapse of human civilization. Human civilization and the existing ecosystems on planet Earth will be irrevocably lost.

What should humanity do?

Given what is at stake, it seems obvious that humanity should make an outsized, concerted effort to prevent all these catastrophes before they occur. What would this mean? Humanity has three things to do:

Stop burning all fossil fuels and end methane emissions into the atmosphere. Ban fossil fuels as soon as possible.
Start extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at a massive scale. Humanity has added approximately 1.6 trillion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. We need to extract at least half of it back out of the atmosphere.
Use geoengineering techniques to artificially cool the planet.

This past week there was a lot of media coverage about the EPA changing clean air standards for auto makers. The goal is to promote electric vehicle production over the coming decade. This article is typical:

E.P.A. Lays Out Rules to Turbocharge Sales of Electric Cars and Trucks – https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/climate/biden-electric-cars-epa.html

This is a miniscule step toward solving the problem, and it takes too long to create any real change. We need to instead consider radical, planet-wide steps toward banning fossil fuels and replacing them with synthetics and/or electricity, extracting massive amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and cooling the planet down with geoengineering. These articles can help understand what is possible: