RALEIGH – The Triangle real estate market continues to shift toward a balanced market for buyers and sellers. That’s as new data shows that the median sale price of all real estate in Wake County fell by more than $10,000 in August and a new analysis of 51 metropolitan regions shows that Raleigh is among the nation’s top five metropolitan areas where one key indicator of negotiating power has decreased the most in the last year.
The National Housing Report conducted by real estate brokerage firm RE/MAX found that across 51 studied metropolitan statistical areas, the Raleigh metro saw the fourth highest year-over-year decrease in the close-to-list price ratio measure, with a drop of 3.6% between August 2021 and August 2022.
“Patient buyers were rewarded in August, as prices softened from July. Sales increased as buyers ‘bought the dip’ – which was not the trend many people were expecting. The activity modestly depleted inventory, although the number of homes for sale remains significantly higher than this time a year ago,” said Nick Bailey, RE/MAX President and CEO, in the statement from RE/MAX.
There are still signs that the Triangle real estate market is stable and may be more resilient than other metropolitan regions, WRAL TechWire reported earlier this month.
Bailey said that recent sales activity nationally does indicate the housing market is resilient, and added that demand for buying a home remains strong.
The only other markets where this price ratio indicator dropped more were in Washington, D.C., (-16.5% year-over-year change), San Francisco, CA (-6.3% year-over-year change), and Seattle, WA (-5.5% year-over-year change).
In the Raleigh metro area, the RE/MAX report shows that while the close-to-list price ratio in August 2021 for the Raleigh metropolitan region was 104.3%, that had dropped to 100.5% by August 2022.
The gap that existed a year ago when homes in Durham and Wake County were selling at 104% of the list price, on average, and in the entire Triangle region, homes were selling at 103.1% of their list price, has now closed.
The close-to-list price ratio “is calculated by the average value of the sales price divided by the list price for each transaction,” the RE/MAX report notes. “When the number is above 100%, the home closed for more than the list price. If it’s less than 100%, the home sold for less than the list price.”
Triangle homes now selling below list price
The RE/MAX report notes that on average, Raleigh area homes are still selling for above their list price, but the data shows a drop of 3.6% year-over-year.
But across the entire Triangle, the latest data from Triangle Multiple Listing Service shows that in August 2022, the sales price was 99.8% of the original list price, before accounting for any seller concessions to close the deal.
That also held true in each of Wake County, where the list-to-sale price ratio was 99.9% and in Durham County, with a ratio of 100.6%, in August 2022, compared to August 2021 when both Durham County and Wake County had ratios of 104%, according to the TMLS data.
And the most recent data from the Wake County Register of Deeds found that the median sale price of a parcel of real estate in Wake County fell in August, dropping to $455,000 from $465,750 in July 2022 and $470,000 in June 2022. The Wake County Register of Deeds data also showed that the median sale price of real estate in the county was $462,000 in May and $454,000 in April.
In other words, the Triangle housing boom is over.
Or, at least the dramatic price appreciation seen during 2021 and the first part of 2022 may have slowed, meaning homes may be more likely to sell at or below their asking price than just a few months ago.
Triangle, NC, and nation?
That trend holds across North Carolina, too, including in Charlotte’s housing market, which ranked as the metro area market with the fourth-highest year-over-year price appreciation as measured by comparing median sale prices in August 2022 with those in August 2021.
“Buyers are no longer bidding against each other to extremes, and while sellers are not seeing the same level of price appreciation gains as they have in the past year or two, we expect continued low single-digit appreciation in the coming months and year,” said RE/MAX Executive Realty real estate agent Gina Mayes Harris, who is based in Charlotte, in a statement. “All signs point to a more balanced market providing plenty of opportunities for buyers and sellers.”
But Triangle homes in good condition that are priced well are still expected to sell, said John Wood, a real estate broker and the owner of Raleigh real estate firm RE/MAX UNITED, in an interview with WRAL TechWire on Monday.
“Homes that are priced right and in appropriate condition for the price will sell quickly,” said Wood.
And according to Taylor Marr, the deputy chief economist at the national real estate brokerage firm Redfin, the Triangle is “not doing any worse than the national picture” when it comes to the recent fall off in home sales and falling median sale prices of homes compared to the prior all-time highs recorded earlier this year.
While some regions of the United States are seeing the effects of mortgage interest rates now above 6%, said Marr, “we’re not seeing quite as dramatic a pullback in the Raleigh or Durham area.”
“The current [Triangle] market is returning to a more normal or historically typical flow of a market,” said Wood. “We had a strong spring market that tapered off as interest rates rose quickly, but it didn’t tank.”