MoneyTree shows a few trees shaking in North Carolina’s startup as well as venture capital sectors.

Dow Jones VentureSource reports a few less.

Yet CB Insights sees fewer signs of life.

Three different sets of numbers add up to news that comes as no surprise to startup executives seeking investment capital – especially early-stage: Not much money seems to be available – the so-called “Series A crunch” and “Series B crunch.”

But to veteran industry watchers, the actual number of deals closing and the money involved are not accurate indicators of what’s really happening in startup land. Plus, the second quarter has gotten off to a good start with some fundings with new arrival AgBiome raising $14 million alone.

David Jones of Southern Capitol Ventures declared: “We are seeing lots of deals. Not all are here locally, but there is a continuance of good deals.”

Lister Delgado at IDEA Fund Partners , which works with non-profit startup funder NC IDEA, adds: “We have a lot of good deals we are looking at.”

They aren’t alone.

“I can honestly tell you that our deal flow on a national level has continued to be pretty strong all through the last five years,” said Ford Worthy of venture capital firm Pappas Ventures, which focuses on life science startups. “If anything, the quality may have improved.”

Want to see where the deal flow is coming from?

A visitor to The Underground in Durham, The Hub in Raleigh and the First Flight Venture Center in RTP will find each is packed with promising startups. The Triangle Startup Factory is grinding out well-funded startups. NC IDEA has many, many qualified applicants for its non-dilutive grants program. 

Meanwhile, some startups are going the angel investment route – and many of those deals simply aren’t reported.

The right deals also can find money – but not just VC. Durham-based Appia just raised $5 million in debt from a new backer – on very favorable terms, says Appia Founder and CEO Jud Bowman. By borrowing, Bowman avoided diluting his own ownership stake as well as his other backers.

And for companies ready to “exit” to a new level – well, the ramps are open.

There is a good amount of IPO action:

  • ChannelAdvisor in Morrisville just filed
  • Chimerix has done very well with its IPO in its first few days
  • LipoScience went public in January

(Pappas, by the way, is invested in both and had an out-of-state portfolio member go public recently. That’s three IPOs in nine months.)

Mergers and acquisitions, meanwhile, are an active exit route. Morrisville-basedGeomagic was sold to to a South Carolina 3D firm, as an example. And Oracle has bought privately held Tekelec. That’s a big deal, although Tekelec was far from startup status. But these transactions are proof the big firms are buying. And there have been several other transactions as well.

First, the numbers:

  • The PricewaterhouseCoopers’ MoneyTree report done in conjunction with the National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Reuters shows eight deals in North Carolina over the first three months of the year totalling $46 million.
  • DowJones reports a smaller number of deals, six, but a much larger money amount of $112 million
  • CB Insights reports a mere five deals but a number value of $58 million.

Trying to reconcile the difference in numbers among these reports is impossible, given that each group has its own sources and methodology.

MoneyTree did document eight deals, seven of which were in the Triangle. Novan had three of those plus two others. Dow Jones only reports “samples” of deals.

Compared to previous data from MoneyTree and Dow Jones reports, the first quarter doesn’t look too bad. But bear in mind, North Carolina is no longer a hot bed of VC action. After consistently ranking in the Top 10 states for several years, the state most wealthy in pine pollen is dropping down the list.

MoneyTree reported seven deals and a meager $15.4 million in Q1 2012 for North Carolina. Dow Jones listed eight worth $30 million. So, year-to-year, the most recent quarter wasn’t terrible.

But quarterly production of $15 million, $41 million, $54 million and $86 million across 37 deals a year ago as documented by MoneyTree left North Carolina short of $200 million. That’s a long, long away from the Top 10 years. Dow Jones reported $192 million in deals, just over half the 2011 total of $392 million. 

Laura Robinette of PwC in Raleigh who works with many tech firms concludes that the venture data must be taken as only a snapshot of the state’s tech/life science ecosystem.

“I don’t think the venture numbers are indicative of what’s really happening,” she said. “There are a lot of great things going on.”

Nationally, the news wasn’t much better,

Investments dropped 6 percent to $5.87 billion from $6.27 billion in the first quarter of 2012. There were 863 deals in all, down slightly from 868 a year earlier, the AP reported, citing MoneyTree data.

Dow Jones VentureSource reported 752 deals worth $6 billion, an 11 percent drop from a year ago.