‘In a good place:’ Number of people working in NC hits another record high

RALEIGH – The number of people working across North Carolina set a record of nearly 5.1 million in November, according to the N.C. Department of Commerce, putting the state’s economy “in a good place,” says N.C. State economist Dr. Mike Walden.

Data shows the state added 2,417 jobs over October, lifting the seasonally adjusted total to 5,095,540. Nearly 135,000 more people are working than in November 2022 – more than 100,000 of those being non-farm. The unemployment rate was 3.5% – a slight increase of 0.1% from October, the state reported.

A spokesperson for Commerce confirmed the number of people working is a record. Earlier this year the working total topped 5 million for the first time.

2024 projections: A year of two economies, says NCSU economist

The good employment news comes even as the Federal Reserve continues its battle against inflation by aggressively raising interest rates through the year. And Walden finds plenty of good news in the new numbers.

“The upbeat end-of-the-year job numbers put North Carolina in a good place for, what may be, a bumpy first half of 2024,” Walden tells WRAL TechWire.

“Of note is the fact North Carolina was one of only three states with an increase in non-farm jobs. These findings suggest North Carolina continues to be one of the top states for economic and job growth.”

One negative note: The number of information technology jobs fell by 1,100. But Walden sees the drop as temporary.

“While one of the State’s key sectors – technology – experienced a decline in jobs, this is still the result of the sector making adjustments after its surge in employment during the pandemic,” he explains. “In the long-run, technology should continue to be a growth industry in the State.”

Looking head to 2024, however, Walden says inflation remains a threat and the higher interest rates still in place will be a drag on growth.

“While the Federal Reserve appears ready to reduce interest rates in 2024, my forecast is the Fed won’t move until they have evidence the inflation rate is very near to their goal of an annual inflation rate of 2%. But if the Fed keeps their policy interest rate steady while the inflation rate is moderating, this makes the effective cost of borrowing higher. In this case, businesses will slow borrowing and potentially reduce their workforce,” Walden warns.

“As a result, I could see the job market pulling back and the jobless rate rising for some months in the early part of 2024. While the reduction in business activity may not be strong enough to imply a recession, the slowdown in the economy will adversely impact some workers. In the second half of 2024, I see the Fed reducing interest rates, thereby causing a rebound in the economy.

“Hence, my crystal ball says to hold on for first some ‘downs’ and then some ‘ups’ in the 2024 economy. For many states, this kind of economy will be very challenging. But for the turbo-charged economy of North Carolina, we should be able to take the fluctuations in stride.”

The November report also notes that the number of people unemployed “increased 2,816 over the month to 182,214 and decreased 17,642 over the year.”

The additional jobs came in: