RALEIGH – The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows an inflation rate of 8.3% during the 12 months ending in April 2022.

That’s dipped from the 8.5% inflation rate for the 12 month period that ended in March 2022.

But rising prices may still be here to stay for a long time, said Dr. Michael Walden, a William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor Emeritus at North Carolina State University and a regular contributor to WRAL TechWire.

“While the slightly lower April inflation rate is good news, unfortunately it may be short lived,” said Walden.

The inflation rate for apparel, communication, and used vehicles decreased slightly, as did energy prices, according to the data.  But overall, the inflation rate still increased 0.3% in April, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, though last month, the increase was 1.2%.

“The improvement was largely due to a retreat in gasoline prices in April, which dropped at an annual rate of 6.1%,” said Walden.  “Gas prices are on the rise again, and if the trend continues, the May total inflation rate could take a jump.”

Plus, the food index rose 0.9% in April, and is up 9.4% for the 12 months ending in April, the highest such jump since April 1981.  Many have questions about inflation, and many have worries about a possible recession.

“We are a long way from relief from rising prices,” said Walden.

Inflation warning: It’s going to get even worse, says UNC economist

Wage increases trail inflation

Rising prices are having a real effect on individuals and families in North Carolina.

And even in a competitive job market where wages are increasing, prices are rising faster than wages.

“Wages are growing much more slowly than inflation, so inflation-adjusted real wages is negative,” said Dr. Gerald Cohen, the chief economist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s Kenan Institute, at a virtual briefing on the economy last week.  “Meaning people’s take home pay is less, relative.”

In March, Cohen warned that inflation could get even worse.

“Unfortunately, in the near term, inflation is going to move meaningfully higher on the back of energy prices,” said Cohen.  “The large swings of energy prices make for a key driver of inflation.”

And while Cohen previously wrote that run-ups in energy prices sometimes precede recessions, he noted last week that the country is not currently at risk of a recession, despite concerns.

UNC economist: We’re not at risk of recession despite worries