RALEIGH – Richmond Fed President and CEO Tom Barkin provided North Carolina business leaders with some pretty positive news about the economy as the battle with COVID-19 continues.
“My outlook is a slow first-half recovery, but one with limited downside. We then return toward normal starting with a strong second half. But I do worry we will be working on the labor market mismatch for some time to come,” Barkin told the annual NC Economic Forecast event put on in part by the NC Bankers Association on Thursday.
Among his comments shared via Twtter:
“I see promising signs for business investment, supported by low real rates and evidenced in recent strong durable goods reports. In contrast, I think the spike in government spending is behind us.
“I see continuing disinflationary pressures from global labor markets, technology-enabled price transparency and professional purchasing organizations with market power, and of course the Fed is committed to act if needed
“Spending is coming back faster than employment, which is still 6.5 percent or 9.8 million jobs below pre-COVID levels.
“Interest-sensitive sectors like residential and automotive have been booming. Home builder confidence has hit all-time highs. Single-family housing starts are the highest they’ve been since before the Great Recession.
“This recession directly targeted personal-contact service workers who are disproportionately young, disproportionately women and disproportionately people of color.”
Barkin also noted that the state’s manufacturing center in December reached its highest rating in 6 years.
