CARY – Frustrated by “unreliable” forecasts data due to the impact of COVID-19, RDU International teamed with SAS to use data analytics tools to create what they believe will be more accurate information, thus helping the airport better anticipate staffing and resources needs.
“Airport resources and staffing are largely dictated by how many people fly through the airport. As such, an accurate forecast is vital to RDU’s efforts to ensure that we provide the best possible experience for travelers departing from, or arriving to RDU,” Stephanie Hawco,
Director of Media Relations at RDU, told WRAL TechWire.
“Knowing how many travelers RDU will see in any given day ensures that we have the right resources in place so that the traveler experiences a seamless and worry free experience at RDU.”
In other words, forecasts affect several aspects of RDU’s operations.
“The forecasts are used by RDU for short and long term planning,” Hawco said. “For example, to have appropriate staffing levels during high peak periods and determine when we need will need to open remote parking lots that have been closed throughout the pandemic.”
RDU graphic
Airline traffic has plummeted since the pandemic became widespread in March of this year. As RDU notes at its websitre, the number of nonstop destinations from the Triangle has dropped to 37 from 57 since the pandemic began.
Restrictions such as social distancing and on travel have been relaxed somewhat but COVID-19 cases are rising again, raising anew worries about exposure. RDU noted that the SAS project was needed as a result. Traditional forecasting methods “have become varied and inconsistent amid the global health crisis,” according to RDU.
Airlines also could benefit.
“The passenger forecasts are primarily used internally by staff, though the airport does regularly provide airlines, business partners and community stakeholders with updates on forecasts and industry trends,” Hawco explained.
SAS volunteers
And the project already is paying off.
“SAS’ analytics team developed an approach the airport could not have produced on its own or through working solely with airport consultants,” RDU explained. “The model developed in collaboration with SAS has predicted October passenger traffic within two points of expected traffic based on TSA screened passenger data. This tremendous success in forecasting during a period of heavy uncertainty would not have been possible without the expertise of the team at SAS.”
SAS, a global leader in data analysis, felt the project was so important it charged RDU nothing and, in fact, volunteered to help.
“SAS donated its time and resources as a part of the company’s effort to lend their expertise to critical partners in our community,” Hawco pointed out when asked if SAS was paid – and how much. “In fact, SAS proactively reached out to RDU to offer their services during this difficult period in the airport industry.”
Anthony Mancuso
Anthony Mancuso, Director of the Global Risk Advisory Consulting at SAS, said the pandemic “exposed current forecasting models’ limitations and the need for new approaches.”
The project was built around SAS efforts to help other clients deal with the COVID-19 challenge.
“By applying the same methodologies that are helping our financial services customers weather the pandemic, SAS advised RDU on how to revise air traffic projections that tighten model confidence and better predict passenger volumes in the weeks and months ahead.,” he said.
For the time being, Hawco explained, the project “involved developing short-term forecasts. We expect to return to traditional forecasting methods once passenger traffic recovers but will continue to use the new methodology until traditional models become more reliable.”
More accurate information is essential to airport operations, stressed Michael Landguth, CEO of the RDU Airport Authority.
“Airports cannot succeed without accurate projections about how many passengers will board a flight tomorrow or a year from now,” he said in a statement announcing the SAS project on Wednesday.
“RDU’s collaboration with SAS allows the airport to develop more precise forecasts that drive important business and planning decisions. We value this local partnership and are fortunate SAS offered to consult with the airport during this challenging period for the aviation industry.”
