This spring, investors could have bought almost any asset class and reaped incredible returns.
Every market, with the exception of emerging market currencies and agricultural products, has recouped at least 50% of its Covid-19 losses, JPMorgan strategist John Normand observed in a recent note to clients. Some markets, like investment-grade credit, have regained at least 80%.
“When the business cycle is turning higher, policy hyper-stimulative and downside risks manageable, the obvious investment strategy might be to own anything but cash,” Normand wrote. “This indiscriminate approach would not have damaged absolute returns over the past few months.”
But Normand thinks it may be time to rethink the “everything wins” playbook, making the case for greater selectivity heading into the second half of the year.
As the pace of bond-buying by central banks slows, country- and industry-specific characteristics will become relevant again, according to the bank.
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What it means: JPMorgan is now urging clients to favor top-rated corporate bonds over those with higher yields due to concerns about rising defaults, and to focus on those issued in developed instead of emerging markets. For stocks, the bank thinks investors should stick with Covid-19 “endgame winners” from the tech, communications and health care sectors.
“Liquidity cannot paper over specific weaknesses indefinitely,” Normand said.
The backdrop: Markets have continued to push higher despite concerns about rising coronavirus cases in Latin America and nearly half of US states, and new clusters of infections in Germany and China.
The S&P 500 ended last week up nearly 1.9%, its fourth week of gains in the past five, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose more than 3%.
But there are signs investors are getting pickier about what they scoop up.
Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere noted Monday that health care and tech were the best-performing sectors last week, indicating that investors are starting to make less risky choices.
That doesn’t mean Wall Street is panicking about regional surges in coronavirus cases. The mood can be best described as cautiously optimistic, with traders prepared to act swiftly if the outlook changes.
JPMorgan acknowledged it is not “properly hedged” against a second wave of infections that triggers lockdowns, noting preparedness has improved.
“We think there is sufficient hospital capacity to accommodate the inevitable rise in infections as mobility increases,” the bank said.
