Trade war fallout; Biggest wealth manager turns bearish on stocks

For the first time since the eurozone crisis which began a decade ago, the world’s biggest wealth manager is bearish on stocks.

In a note to investors, UBS Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele said that the group, which manages more than $2.4 trillion, has shifted to an “underweight” recommendation on equities.

The bank advised its wealthy clients to lower the proportion of stocks in their portfolios following President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on all exports from China by 5% last Friday.

Here’s why:

“The US-China trade dispute has escalated in recent days, raising the risk of a cycle of retaliation that undermines global growth and equities markets,” Haefele said. “That justifies a reduction in risk in our portfolios in order to lower our exposure to an uncertain political environment.”

Trade war and you: Tariffs will cost Americans $1,000 a year, report warns

There’s no arguing that geopolitics have sent stocks on a wild ride in the past month, largely driven by the president’s haphazard moves on trade.

Haefele said UBS still thinks the United States can avoid a recession in 2020, helped by additional easing from the Federal Reserve and strong consumer spending.

And he cautioned that investors shouldn’t sell stocks “as if they were preparing for a typical recession or the next Great Financial Crisis.”

But UBS makes clear it does not see the current environment improving.

Trade war escalates: China hikes tariff on $75 billion of US products

“Downside risks are increasing for both the global economy and markets,” Haefele said.

Insiders are selling

Corporate insiders have sold an average of $600 million in stocks per day in August, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks stock market liquidity.

August is on track to the be the fifth month of the year in which insider selling tops $10 billion.