Gaze into the Cisco crystal ball …
In less than four years, people worldwide will be using smartphones more than PCs while sending and receiving data at ever-faster speeds.
Meanwhile, the Internet of Things explosion will mean more than three times the number of net-connected devices than humans.
Think virtual reality is hype? You need to rethink.
Those are just a few of the predictions made in Cisco’s Visual Networking Index Forecast.
And this is not just for the U.S. In fact, Cisco predicts much of the result of the world will actually help drive device and bandwidth growth.
Various reports from multiple analysts and companies have forecast the ever-growing data glut that will have people and businesses requiring more bandwidth than ever. But the Cisco report is among the most highly regarded, and thus reported about. One reason is Cisco’s thought and product leadership in networking. Another: Cisco embraced IoT early and in bear-hug fashion. So when Cisco speaks, the tech world listens.
It’s certainly no secret that people and businesses are relying more on wireless networks than ever before. That trend will continue with the advent of 5G (we’re in 4G right now), with AT&T reporting incredibly fast speeds in lab tests. of 10 gigabits.
And demand for content delivery via high-speed Internet connections (Google Fiber, AT&T Gigapower, Frontier, Verizon, etc.) for everything from streaming video to gaming will drive the need for ever-faster fiber networks. Triangle residents see that right now with companies digging up yards to bury fiber-optic cable.
Here are just a few of the Cisco projections:
- Smartphone traffic will exceed PC traffic by 2020. In 2015, PCs accounted for 53 percent of total IP traffic, but by 2020 PCs will account for only 29 percent of traffic.
- Traffic breakdown: Smartphones will account for 30 percent of total IP traffic in 2020, up from 8 percent in 2015. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 8 percent, and TVs, tablets, smartphones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 17 percent, 39 percent, 58 percent, and 44 percent, respectively.
- Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will account for two-thirds of total IP traffic by 2020. By 2020, wired devices will account for 34 percent of IP traffic, and Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 66 percent of IP traffic. In 2015, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic, at 52 percent.
- Content delivery networks (CDNs) will carry nearly two-thirds of Internet traffic by 2020. Sixty-four percent of all Internet traffic will cross CDNs by 2020 globally, up from 45 percent in 2015.
- The number of devices connected to IP networks will be more than three times the global population by 2020. There will be 3.4 networked devices per capita by 2020, up from 2.2 networked devices per capita in 2015. There will be 26.3 billion networked devices in 2020, up from 16.3 billion in 2015.
- Broadband speeds will nearly double by 2020. By 2020, global fixed broadband speeds will reach 47.7 Mbps, up from 24.7 Mbps in 2015.
Overall, Cisco expects Internet, or IP, traffic to triple by 2020.
It also projects a possible traffic jam some points of the day: What Cisco calls “busy hour” – the busiest 60 minutes of the day in a given geography – will see growth increasing more than 450 percent.
Some specific factors driving growth: virtual reality, surveillance, Internet TV, video-on-demand, and gaming:
- Internet video surveillance traffic nearly doubled in 2015.
- Virtual reality traffic quadrupled in 2015, from 4.2 petabytes (PB) per month in 2014 to 17.9 PB per month in 2015.
- Internet video to TV grew 50 percent in 2015.
- Consumer video-on-demand (VoD) traffic will nearly double by 2020.
- Internet gaming traffic will grow sevenfold from 2015 to 2020
So, in a nutshell, we will rely on the Internet for everything from business to pleasure through our smartphones and IoT-connected devices more than ever – and we won’t be patient about it.
Bottom line: Networks will have to be fast and reliable. Latency can’t happen. Our devices have to be powerful with high-resolution screens – and have strong batteries. If not, we the people will take our business elsewhere.
Check out the Cisco report at:
http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/vni-hyperconnectivity-wp.html
