Another PC industry forecast contains more bad news for companies focused on Microsoft software and Intel chips despite the recent introduction of new Windows 8 software.
In other words, Lenovo, HP, Dell and all the top computer manufacturers outside of Apple.
Canalys described its latest forecast for “Wintel” machines as “bleak.”
The research firm on Thursday said in its 2013 and beyond PC market forecast that the computer market share of so-called Wintel-based PCs (powered by Windows and Intel chips) will plunge to 41 percent in 2016 from 65 percent in 2013.
In 2012, the Wintel market share of desktops, netbooks and notebooks was 72 percent.
“Canalys predicts that from 2014 to 2016 the PC industry will see a shift in form-factor mix, as consumers in both mature and high-growth markets become interested in new PC designs based on touch-screens,” the firm said.
“Canalys expects the pad market will grow by 37 percent on average each year between 2012 and 2016, with volumes reaching 389 million units, accounting for 59 percent of total PC shipments.
“This growth will be driven by the iPad and iPad mini, low-cost, content-subsidized Android products, and Windows-based hybrid PCs (e.g., Microsoft’s Surface Pro). The hybrid form-factor adds value to pads, enabling a greater level of productivity. This, combined with the expected improvements in Android and iOS [Apple’s mobile operating system], will further encourage the shift from notebooks to pads.”
Canalys includes tablets in its sales forecast for 2016. Other research firms have shown a reluctance to include tablets such as Apple’s iPad and Android-powered devices.
However, other forecasts have also predicted troubles for the PC market. For example, IDC says tablet sales will double by 2016.
While Lenovo and other PC makers have moved to embrace tablets and touch screens, Canalys says – so far – Windows 8 has provided little help.
In the fourth quarter of this year, Canalys said desktop PC, notebook and netbook sales plunged 10 percent from a year ago.
“Wintel PCs are becoming less likely as an individual’s first choice of computing device for everyday tasks, such as sending e-mail or Web browsing,” Pin-Chen Tang, an analyst at Canalys, said in a research report. “Pads and, increasingly, smartphones can perform many of the day-to-day computing tasks that most people require.”
In fact, Tom Evans, a research analyst at Canalys, sees Windows 8 has having a negative impact on the industry.
“The launch of Windows 8 did not reinvigorate the market in 2012, and is expected to have a negative effect as we move into 2013,” Evans said.
“Windows 8 is so different from previous versions that most consumers will be put off by the thought of having to learn a new OS [operating system],” he added.
“An additional barrier is the potential increase in cost that Windows 8 brings, as it is perceived that a PC with a touch-screen is needed to get the best user experience. In the current economic climate, this will be enough to make people delay purchases as they wait for prices to fall.”
However, Canalys analyst Tim Couling says touch screens are the future.
“It is clear that Microsoft is now pushing touch as the primary input method for Windows, but keyboard and mouse are still needed for legacy applications,” Coulling said. “Following the launch of the iPhone, the shift from keypad/keyboard to touch input on smart phones was rapid. The popularity of pads and the inevitable decline in touch-panel prices will cause the same trend to emerge in the PC market.”
