Triangle jobs market is cooling but hiring will continue, economists say

WRAL TechWire’s weekly Jobs Report compiles the latest information from the region’s top job boards, offering a breakdown of how many jobs are posted, which companies are hiring, and what positions are most in-demand. We asked local economists what’s changed in our regional economy and what may come next, and that appears below. And, as always, we’ll review what’s new since last week’s Jobs Report in today’s corresponding WRAL TechWire Jobs Report. The Jobs Report is now published on Tuesdays.

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RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK – The hunt for talent across the Triangle appear to have slowed in recent weeks, the latest data from job boards tracked by WRAL TechWire shows.

But thousands of jobs remain available and a slowdown comes in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve announcing it would raise interest rates in response to persistent inflation as well as the Independence Day holiday.

So while we may be seeing the beginning of a slowing labor market, it’s possible there’s a normal seasonal slowdown observable in the prior two weeks of data.

Information from North Carolina’s labor markets appears to be tracking with the national data, said Dr. Anne York, an economist and program director at Meredith College in Raleigh in an interview with WRAL TechWire.

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“While we have had strong job growth nationally and regionally, it is growing at a lower rate,” said York. “As we head into more economic uncertainty, the easiest employee for a business to let go is one who isn’t hired yet.”

And this turbulence in the region’s job market has continued into July, as shown in this week’s WRAL TechWire Jobs Report, with drops in postings in most of the data sources tracked.

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Still strong, resilient

However, Dr. Michael Walden, an economist and a William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor Emeritus at North Carolina State University, says the job market in the Triangle remains strong compared to other markets, even if it has slowed in recent weeks.

“We are likely to continue to see postings as well as hirings, but just not as robust as they had been,” said Walden. “Many regions in the country will see virtually no postings and actual job losses.”

Of course, layoffs are beginning to impact some Triangle workers, including about 40 now-former employees of Durham-based startup company Adwerx, who were laid off at the end of last week.

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Yet nationally, the U.S. economy continues to add jobs, with the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that the economy added 372,000 jobs in June.

And that strength in the economy could give the Federal Reserve cover to again raise interest rates, said Christian Lundblad, a Richard Levin Distinguished Professor of Finance at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, on a media briefing hosted last Friday.

Still, lower growth in job openings, both at a national level or a local level, could be a first signal of problems in the labor market, said York.

“We need to keep in mind that labor market growth has been historically high as the economy has improved after the very brief recession in March to April 2020 caused by the pandemic,” said York. “Returning to a lower but more typical rate of job growth should be seen as a favorable indicator to getting to a lower inflation rate.”

Read about the latest local job data in this week’s WRAL TechWire jobs report.