RALEIGH – The outlook for the future of Raleigh remains positive, with the metropolitan area expected to increase in population at the second-fastest rate in the nation, behind Austin, Texas.

That’s according to Ted Abernathy, the managing partner of Economic Leadership, LLC, who spoke in Raleigh Wednesday afternoon at Launch 2023, an event organized by the Raleigh Chamber.

Raleigh’s metropolitan statistical area is experiencing a growth rate of 11.1%.  Only Austin has a higher growth rate over the last five years, Abernathy said.

Watch live: Raleigh Chamber of Commerce gives predictions, trends for 2023

It’s not just Wake County, said Abernathy.  Johnston County and Franklin County are both expected to grow by more than 30% this decade, Abernathy said.  Johnston County has been growing among the fastest growing counties in the United States, WRAL TechWire reported last year.

And, across the state, said Abernathy, the top factor that affects our future workforce will be the state’s and the nation’s fertility rate.  The next most important factor will be how – and why – Americans choose to move.

“Since 2000, North Carolina has added 2.5 million people,” said Abernathy.  “50% of that has come from domestic migration.”

North Carolina ranks among the top states in the nation where people are seeking to move.  But the reverse is not the case, said Abernathy.  Once here, people don’t seem to want to move away, he said, calling the state “sticky.”

But there are still questions that remain about the regional economy and the economy of North Carolina, said Abernathy.

Chief among those questions is this one, said Abernathy. “Did COVID permanently change the way people think, and the way they will act in the future?”

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What 2023 will bring

In remarks that appeared in the event’s program, Abernathy commented that many people are entering 2023 continuing a “search for a new normal” and that this search remains “a work in progress.”

There’s both great optimism and great uncertainty, both of which exist simultaneously at this moment in time, Abernathy said.

Still, 2022 was another banner year for North Carolina, with the state receiving all kinds of accolades, including being named “State of the Year” by Business Facilities magazine on Thursday.

In terms of the state’s labor market, North Carolina was one of the top five best performing states when it came to job growth, despite the state ranking ninth in the nation in terms of total population.

And Abernathy’s research ranks North Carolina second in the United States for manufacturing, rising two spots from the prior year’s analysis.  That’s before major manufacturing facilities from Toyota, VinFast, Boom Supersonic, and Wolfspeed, among others, are up and operational in the state.

Abernathy’s firm also conducts the benchmarking study known as the Tech Innovation Index for the North Carolina Technology Association, NC TECH, which found in October that Raleigh ranked 8th overall among the top 100 metropolitan regions in the county, while Durham ranked 6th overall.

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Looking ahead

There are challenges ahead for the state, and for the Triangle, said Abernathy.

In remarks, Abernathy highlighted that affordability will remain a focal point for individuals, households, and for companies and employers.

“Affordability has emerged post-pandemic as a more important factor for everyone and every company,” remarked Abernathy.  The number one factor that contributes to a decision to move, according to Abernathy’s remarks, is cost of living.

“Our cost of living balance is one of the reasons that we’re doing so well,” said Abernathy.

While the Triangle is still relatively affordable compared to places like Austin, Boston, or Silicon Valley, housing costs rose more rapidly over the past two years.

“Increasing the regional supply of desirable housing and ensuring easy mobility across the region needs to be a priority for policy makers,” said Abernathy.

Of course, attracting talented workers is a priority for companies and employers, and that is expected to remain the case into 2023 and beyond.

“Everyone now understands that talent will be the most important competitive issue for the foreseeable future,” Abernathy said.

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Editor’s Note: WRAL is a sponsor of the Launch 2023 event and has been a sponsor for prior Launch events organized by the Raleigh Chamber.