Report: Raleigh real estate market to tip toward buyers

RALEIGH – An updated analysis of the top 100 housing markets in the United States shows that Fayetteville is still the best seller’s market in the nation while Winston-Salem’s housing market ranked second in the nation when it comes to the decrease in home sale prices from earlier this year and yet remained the second-best housing market for sellers in the United States.

Both of those housing markets are expected to continue to favor sellers, according to a forecast released alongside the current index compiled by Knock.

But the forecast expects Raleigh’s housing market to tip away from a seller’s market by the end of September 2023.

The Raleigh-Cary metropolitan statistical area ranked as the nation’s 31st best real estate market when it comes to favoring sellers, but a forecast from the company expects the real estate market to be neutral by next fall, where neither buyers nor sellers have an upper hand in negotiating a home purchase.

And while Durham-Chapel Hill ranked as the 37th best market for sellers in the most recent analysis, the company’s forecast for that market anticipates that sellers will still be in a better position to negotiate than buyers next fall.

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What’s happening

Nationally, 98 of the top 100 real estate markets fell below their peak pricing recorded earlier this year, including all of the North Carolina markets tracked by the company.

“Based on our findings, the shift to a more balanced market is still in its early stages. We expect that this much-needed reset will persist through much of 2023, and although prices will again begin to rebound they likely won’t return to their peaks for the foreseeable future,” said Sean Black, the co-founder and CEO of Knock in a statement. “While many drivers of the housing market like demographics and record low unemployment have not changed, the combination of higher rates and home prices have put affordability at the worst levels in 30 years with entry-level monthly payments set to be 34% higher in 2022 vs 2021.”

But real estate agents in North Carolina say that these price decreases may just be a return to cyclical, seasonal trends, and though mortgage interest rates have risen this year, and could continue to rise as the Federal Reserve is expected to again raise interest rates this week and again next month, this could be the best time to buy a home in the Triangle.

“The good news is that as prices soften and rates stabilize once the Fed is done with its aggressive rate hike campaign, hopefully after its meeting in November, buyers will be ready to re-enter the market and sellers will retain the majority of the equity gains they’ve seen in the last two years,” said Black.

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A look at North Carolina’s housing markets

According to a spokesperson for Knock, there were seven North Carolina markets included in the analysis. The details from the company’s analysis are shown below as the spokesperson shared them with WRAL TechWire, though have been lightly edited for clarity.

Asheville

Asheville is still a sellers’ market ranking as the 41st sellers’ market in the analysis.
Asheville is forecast to rank as the No. 9 top sellers’ market in September 2023.
It will continue to favor sellers with 400 homes sold and a median sale price of $475,000. The median days on market will be 17.

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Charlotte

Ranked as neutral currently (it strongly favored sellers in September 2021).
Charlotte is one of 27 markets projected to shift to a buyers’ market by September 2023.
It is forecast to be the No. 17 top buyers’ market.
The Index projects 1,600 homes will be sold, median days on market will be 16 and the median sale price will be $403,000.
Charlotte is the only market in North Carolina that is projected to be a buyers’ market in September 2023.

Durham-Chapel Hill

Durham-Chapel Hill ranked No. 37 of 51 sellers’ markets. The median sale price was $425,000 and 1,045 homes were available for sale, up 3.1% from a year ago. The average days on market was 18, and 715 homes sold.
By 2023, Durham will rank No. 19 on the list of 43 sellers’ markets. Currently ranked as favoring sellers, it will continue to rank as favoring sellers next year.
200 homes are projected to be sold, spending 17 days on market. The median sale price is forecast to be $462,000.
Durham favored sellers in September 2021.

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Fayetteville

Fayetteville topped the list of 51 sellers’ markets in September, strongly favoring sellers.
With a median sale price of $215,000, just 434 homes were available for sale, down 20.7% from September 2021. Median days on market were seven and 793 homes were sold.
It is forecast to be the top sellers’ market in September.
We are projecting 900 homes to sell with a median price of $235,000 and 7 days on market.

Greensboro

Greensboro is a sellers’ market, ranking as the No. 6 sellers’ market in the analysis. That’s because home prices remain relatively affordable and are selling fast in a median of 8 days. Inventory is up 5% year over year.
Will rank at the No. 12 sellers’ market in September 2023 and continue to favor sellers with 400 homes sold and a median sale price of $277,000. Homes will spend a median of 8 days on the market.

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Raleigh

Raleigh-Cary ranked No. 31 of 51 sellers’ markets in September, with a media sale price of $435,000. The number of homes for sale was 2,660 up 15.6% from a year ago.
Homes spent a median of 18 days on the market and a total of 2,177 homes were sold.
Raleigh is projected to shift to neutral, neither favoring buyers or sellers by September 2023.

Winston-Salem

Winston-Salem ranked No. 2 of the 15 markets with the largest price drop from their peak pricing.
Prices peaked at a median price of $282,000 in June; the median sale price was down 13.1% to $245,000 in September.
Despite the fall from its peak pricing, Winston-Salem ranked as the No. 2 sellers’ market in September, favoring sellers.
Factors that contribute to sellers’ status… low inventory – a total of 829 homes were listed for sale in September, down 3.4% year-over-year. Median days on market were just seven, compared to the national median of 20 days.
We are forecasting Winston-Salem to be the No. 5 top sellers’ market by September 2023. It will continue to strongly favor sellers with 400 homes sold and a median days on market of 7.
In September 2023, the median sale price is forecast to increase to $270,000, up 10.3% year-over year and down 4.2% from its peak. (It will have one of the strongest price rebounds in the 15 markets with the largest declines).