The NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators (the “Index”), a forecast of the economy’s direction four to six months ahead, continued to signal accelerated future growth in North Carolina.
The Index’s value in November was 0.6% higher than in October and 8.1% above its year-ago level. All components of the Index improved with the exception of building permits, which is the most volatile of the measures. Strong gains were registered in the two manufacturing measures, suggesting this key sector will be moving to a higher level in 2014. Recent increases in the Index are signaling a noticeably stronger economy for the state in the new year.
The Index is composed of five components: the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)’s Weekly Leading Index (http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/), North Carolina initial claims for unemployment benefits, North Carolina building permits, average weekly hours of work of all North Carolina employees in manufacturing, and average weekly earnings of all North Carolina employees in manufacturing.
All data are seasonally-adjusted and modified for differences in prices levels where appropriate. Data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, and ECRI, whose permission to use their Weekly Leading Index is greatly appreciated. All calculations are done by Dr. Michael Walden.
