Editor’s note: The NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators surged in December, indicating that economic expansion will continue through at least early 2016, says NCSU Dr. Michael Walden. Earlier this month, Walden in a separate forecast predicted a good year for the state, but beware the “unknowns.” See links with this post for other recent economic analysis about 2016.

RALEIGH, N.C. – The NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators (the “Index”), a forecast of the economy’s direction four to six months ahead, jumped in December.

The Index rose a strong 5.3%, ending the year on a high note.

With the exception of manufacturing hours, all components improved.

The leading gainers were a 13.1% rise in building permits and an 11.2% drop in initial jobless claims.

However, among the components building permits displays the most volatility, so without its robust improvement the Index’s rise would have been more modest.

Also, three of the five Index components were not better than a year earlier.

Still, the trend in the Index suggests the economic expansion in North Carolina will continue at least through the early part of 2016.

Chg. from prev. month; Chg. from prev. year

  • INDEX: 5.3% 2.1%
  • ECRI-WLI: 0.1% 0.1%
  • Claims: -11.2% -19.5%
  • Permits: 13.1% -1.5%
  • Hours: 0.0% -3.6%
  • Earnings: 0.3% -2.3%

About the Index: The Index is composed of five components: the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)’s Weekly Leading Index (http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/), North Carolina initial claims for unemployment benefits, North Carolina building permits, average weekly hours of work of all North Carolina employees in manufacturing, and average weekly earnings of all North Carolina employees in manufacturing. All data are seasonally-adjusted and modified for differences in prices levels where appropriate. Data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, and ECRI, whose permission to use their Weekly Leading Index is greatly appreciated. All calculations are done by Dr. Michael Walden.

(C) NCSU