A closely watched business barometer report says corporate executives are heading into 2016 with a “Bah, humbug” gloomy attitude – the worst in three years. But there’s good news from the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants for job seekers: Many companies are still hiring.

The Federal Reserve is enthusiastic enough about the economy that it keeps dropping hints interest rates are going up. But that enthusiasm isn’t shared by executives polled by the AICPA, which has a big office in Durham, for its quarterly forecast. (Duke University’s Fuqua Business School forecast is due out soon.)

In fact, the index based on executives’ input has now dropped the fourth straight time. It’s down to 69 on a scale of 100 from a post-recession high of 78 in the fourth quarter of 2014.

The group says executives “have sharply reined in expectations for profit and revenue” with profits predicted to increase 2.9 percent compared to 4.7 percent a year ago and 3.3 percent in the previous survey.

Pressure also is increasing on profit margins with companies expecting 2 percent. That’s almost half expectations entering 2015.

Information technology spending is likely to increase as companies spend more to keep up with the latest developments. But the spend amount declined to 2.8 percent from 3 percent last quarter.

And there is less hope for expansion. While 57 percent of firms expect to grow, that’s three percentage points down from the previous three months and a whopping 14 points under last year’s forecast.

Jobs, jobs, jobs

However, people looking for work or considering switching companies or careers can still expect to find opportunities.

Some 18 percent of firms are still looking to hire, a percentage that’s unchanged from the previous survey.

And 20 percent of companies say they still have too few workers yet remain reluctant to hire. That is up from 17 percent for the survey fo fourth quarter 2015 expectations.

Also, it appears few big layoffs are in the works since 53 percent of those surveyed say their companies have the right number of workers.

“Rising concern”

Still, there is underlying gloom.

“We’re seeing rising concern about U.S. economic conditions and domestic competition,” said Arleen Thomas, the AICPA’s senior vice president of management accounting and global markets. “Those factors, coupled with a potential slowdown in the global economy, have contributed to a perception that growth opportunities are going to be more challenging in the near-term.”

The lack of optimism is most striking about executives’ attitudes about their own firms.

“Only 53 percent of survey respondents expressed optimism about their organization’s anticipated performance for the coming year, down from 59 percent last quarter and 67 percent a year ago. Optimism about the U.S. economy also fell since last quarter, although at a more gradual rate,” the AICPA reports.

More than 800 executives were polled for the survey in November.

About the index: “The CPA Outlook Index—a comprehensive gauge of executive sentiment within the AICPA survey— fell two points in the fourth quarter to 69, the fourth consecutive drop from a post-recession high of 78 in the fourth quarter of 2014. The index is a composite of nine, equally weighted survey measures set on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50 considered neutral and greater numbers signifying positive sentiment.”

Read more at:

http://aicpa.org