If you thought the economy has been turbulent in recent months, then fasten your seat belts. And if you are looking for a job, your chances of being hired are falling. In a new survey, hundreds of business executives turn even more bearish in their attitudes about expectations over the coming year.

And where is the optimism about the coming year lowest? Across the South.

The index of the latest quarterly survey from the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants fell to 63 on a scale of 100 (50 is “neutral.”)

That’s down six points from the previous survey, and the score has now fallen five straight times since reaching a high of 78 in the last quarter of 2014.

The survey is a widely respected analysis of what business executives are expecting in coming months. Duke’s Fuqua School of Business will publish its own CFO survey in the near future. Both reports issued in December had forecast robust hiring in 2016.

This time, the AICPA survey is considerably less optimistic on hiring – and overall.

Scores fell in all of the nine categories on which the index is based.

In announcing the results, even the AICPA said optimism about the economy “falls sharply.”

Here are the index scores in the nine categories for Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015:

  • Overall: 63, down from 74
  • Optimism: 47 vs. 80
  • Optimism about own company: 63 vs. 76
  • Expansion plans: 64 vs. 74
  • Revenue growth: 68 vs. 78
  • Profit growth: 60 vs. 72
  • Employment growth: 59 vs. 68
  • IT spending increase: 73 vs. 76
  • Other capital spending: 67 vs. 71
  • Training & development: 67 vs. 70

More than 500 CEOs and other executives participated in the survey.

Executives expect less in profits, plan to make fewer hires and more, as the index numbers cited earlier indicate.

“For the first time since early 2013, domestic economic conditions have replaced regulatory concerns as the top perceived challenge for business executives,” said Valerie Rainey,chair of the AICPA’s Business & Industry Executive Committee.

She cited several reasons for the pessimism.

“Survey takers say they’re worried about slow growth, stock market volatility, the impact of low oil and commodity prices and upheaval in the global economy.”

Examples:

  • 34 percent of executives are “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic.” That’s the highest percentage since the last quarter of 2012.
  • Only 28 percent of respondents are “optimistic” or “very optimistic.” That’s down a full 40 percentage points from a year ago and a drop of 17 percentage points from 2015’s last quarter.
  • Profits are forecast to grow a mere 1 percent – half what was expected last quarter.
  • Revenues will grow 1.7 percent, which is less than half what the execs predicted a year ago.
  • Only 15 percent of executives expect to add jobs, a decline of three percentage points from Q4 2015.
  • Overall new job growth will likely be only half a percent. Just last quarter, jobs were predicted to increase 2.1 percent, which the AICPA said was the highest since the end of the 2008-9 “Great Recession.”
  • Executives also are less bullish overall about expansion with 52 percent planning to grow. That’s the lowest percentage since Q4 2012.

Construction is seen as having the best growth prospects with 59 percent of execs saying they are optimistic.

Tech execs are next at 53 percent.

Another concern is deflation with concerns about falling prices doubling from the last quarter to 22 percent.

Conversely, inflation concerns plunged nine percentage points to 14 percent in the same time frame.

The survey was conducted between Feb. 9-24 by the AICPA, which has a major presence in Durham.