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RTI: Short-term closures of schools won’t halt spread of an influenza epidemic

H1N1

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RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. – Schools would have to be closed at least eight weeks in order to reduce the spread of infection in the event of an influenza epidemic, according to a study from RTI International.

Short-term closures of up to two weeks would have no impact, RTI concluded based on computer simulations run in conjunction with the University of Pittsburgh and the Allegheny County Health Department in Pennsylvania.

Throughout the current H1N1 pandemic, short-term school closures have been one part of a strategy to limit outbreaks.

"Since children are more susceptible to most influenza strains than adults, closing schools seems an obvious strategy to slow the spread of flu," said Philip Cooley, assistant director of bioinformatics and a Fellow at RTI who was co-author of the study. "However, computer simulations indicate that such closures are ineffective unless they are sustained for at least eight weeks after implementation."

The study, which was published in the Journal of Public Health Management and Practice, actually found that short-term closures might be counterproductive since students would be returned to school as an outbreak continued.

Simulations also said identifying sick students and keeping them at home as well as the closing of individual schools rather than system-wide shutdowns also had little impact on outbreaks.

The National Institutes of Health funded the study through its Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) program.

The RTI MIDAS team is currently involved in other research projects about influenza outbreaks.

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